To appreciate COP28, it’s helpful to compare it to COP 21, the first significant international commitment to address climate change when 196 parties, or countries, at the UN Climate Change Conference signed the Paris Agreement on 12 December 2015, and was later enacted on 4 November 2016 as a legally binding international treaty on climate change.
Eight years ago, the Paris Agreement’s overarching goal was to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and to pursue all efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” Couched in the diplomatic parlance was an acknowledgement of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s warning that crossing the 1.5°C threshold will unleash severe climate events that include more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall. Although this goal was set to be achieved before the end of the century, obviously it would be better not to wait 75 years before humans act.
The U.N.’s working goal for the signatories was to peak greenhouse gas emissions before next year in 2025, at the latest, and to decline 43% by 2030. This was deemed necessary if there was any hope of containing the global temperatures increase to 1.5%. Given that the peak has to occur this year, and then dramatically reduce looks unachievable unless the same concerted action that was quickly put in place for COVID is applied here.
How was the time squandered in the eight years since the Paris Agreement?
If the other signatories are like Canada, then the reason for the lack of progress since Paris would have been political. The federal government signed the international treaty, but the implementation would be mostly at the provincial level, and unfortunately their provincial support was diminished after 2015.
Although Prime Minister Trudeau has remained in power, he lost support with changes in provincial governments like Ontario when they dismantled the previous government’s climate action initiatives. There were constitutional legal challenges by several provinces (Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Alberta) that went all the way to the Supreme Court of Canada that caused further delays and cost millions of dollars in legal costs.
The federal government won the legal challenges, but they seemed to have weakened the federal government’s resolve to address the climate crisis. Most recently, the rise in support for the federal Conservative Party is linked to its vows to dismantle the federal climate change legislation was effectively gained by misinforming voters to axe the carbon tax. Also, many business leaders, especially those in the oil and gas sector, have delayed reducing their carbon footprint because they expect Trudeau to be ousted.
In a recent survey, 23% of Canadians said they have been affected by extreme weather events. This number looks low given that, for the first time, almost everybody in Canada was affected in 2023 by the smoky, smelly air caused by faraway wildfires. Whether it is atmospheric rivers, flooding, heat-domes, wildfires, drought, melting permafrost, hurricanes, and epidemics affecting humans and livestock. it is unlikely no Canadians have not felt the impact of a rapidly changing weather with extreme events.
Statistics Canada is acknowledging that the effects of the climate crisis are significant because in 2023, it started a new section on climate change to provide data on its impact on Canadians,
Extreme climate events are costly to the federal, provincial, and municipal governments as well as to the average person because they are difficult to predict and budget, especially when there are multiple events in the same year. People’s lives are suddenly disrupted from these events, and their lost productivity costs are mounting; and these costs are in addition to the hard and soft infrastructures being damaged or destroyed.
Going into COP28, the signatories were not on track of achieving the Paris Agreement’s working goal, making it difficult for the U.N. Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, to find signs of optimism.
Why could COP28 offer hope?
Definitely, this United Nations Climate Change Conference was different because the host country was a major oil-producer, and the event’s president was the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. The organizers were either inspired or cynical by making this appointment.
There were nearly 200 parties that came together at COP28 in Dubai, which was about the same number as at COP21. The COP28 agreement was worked on well past the end of the conference when they declared the agreement was the “beginning of the end” of the fossil-fuel era.
They also agreed to lay the ground for a swift, just, and equitable transition with deep emissions cuts, and scaled-up finance. They agreed to ratchet up their climate action before the end of the decade – with the overarching aim to keep the global temperature limit of 1.5°C within reach. It’s also the first time that the conference has indicated that its goal can only be achieved by governments working together with businesses to turn these pledges into real-economy outcomes.
They pledged to tripling renewable energy capacity, and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030. This included the phase-down of unabated coal power, phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and other measures that drive the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems – whatever that means.
Long overdue funding for the loss-and-damage fund came in at the beginning of the conference at more than USD 700 million, which is a small step in the right direction. This platform is to catalyze technical assistance to developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Several billions of USD in pledges were made at COP28 to other funds, but this doesn’t necessarily mean the funds will materialize, based upon pledges made at previous conferences.
Instead, COP28 will start a new goal that starts from a baseline of USD 100 billion per year. This is to be a building block for the design and subsequent implementation of national climate plans that need to be delivered by 2025. A lofty goal with a tight deadline.
An indication of the climate crisis urgency is that some 85,000 participants attended COP28 to share ideas, solutions, and build partnerships and coalitions, including the Canadian Medical Association. They were there because of two problems that need to be addressed: For physicians, extreme climate events are making patients sicker and reducing care options; and the second reason is that they are aware that the health system itself is responsible for 4.6% of Canada’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making Canadian health care one of the worst health care polluters per capita in the world.
The reason why COP28 offers hope instead of empty talk was the sheer commitment of all the signatories and participants who want to address the climate crisis without further delay. It was as though that, finally, everybody there was on the same page in acknowledging that it is time we put out the fire to our burning home. This is why COP28 offers hope for humanity.
Sharolyn Mathieu Vettese
President
SMV Energy Solutions
www.smvholdings.com
SMV Energy Solutions provides simple smart solutions that conserve energy